Predictions for the coming year
January 1, 2009 by Steel Phoenix
It seems customary for blogs to mark the new year in some fashion. Rather than bore you with yet another year in review, I’m going to throw out a few predictions for what Jan 01 2010 will look like. Feel free to chime in with your own.
Foreign Policy:
- Israel and the Palestinians will have the appearance of an unsteady truce, still will not recognize each others right to exist, and will generally look just like they have.
- Tensions will be higher with Iran, China, and Russia as they strengthen ties and threaten their neighbors.
- Iraq will turn from a military problem to a political one.
- Afghanistan will look much like it does today.
- Relations will improve with Cuba, Venezuela, and North Korea.
Domestic Policy:
- Barack Obama will find that his biggest obstacles lie within his own party. Congress will grow less cooperative by the day.
- California will strike down gay marriage ban again.
- The Internet will see a notable reduction in liberal bias.
- Gitmo is gone.
- Surveillance programs will be overhauled.
Economy:
- Economic slowdown will continue through the first quarter.
- Several more large, household name companies will fall.
- April will see a chaotic turnaround in the market.
- Gold will hit $1200.
- $5 gas in September.
- Talk of food crisis will cause a food crisis.
- Inflation will be the worry again and will end the year at 11%.
- Interest rates will remain low.
I’ll take a whack at a few:
Perhaps; but I wouldn’t see it as a good thing… especially for the poor citizens of those countries, who would profit from the demise of their dictators far more than from their increased legitimacy, gained by our diplomats catering to them.
I gave up caring what happens at the Wall Street casino, with its daily shearing of the sheeple. As soon as a stock’s PE ratio exceeds 20:1, it is gambling on inflation, not investing.
I also quit paying too much attention to the bullion price, which is being manipulated by the central banks to hide their inflation. I watch the coin price, which now is about $1K per oz. I predict it will be at least flirting with $2K a year from now.
It depends on what you mean by “inflation.” If you intend the true meaning of the word, as in currency inflation, that just increased by more than 25% in the past couple of months alone. If you mean increased prices, then one needs to know the market basket. If one were to use the same basket used back in Carter’s years, we are already at about that level and climbing. If we allow the government to tell it, they will just keep changing the composition of the market basket to try to keep it below 10%… and will probably fail at it.
…or zero. They are already at the point of needing to shovel it out of helicopters in hopes that those who find it actually spend it, instead of hoard it like the banks they bailed out are. ◄Dave►
If you are going to watch the coin price, do so on e-bay. The recent backwardation means the official coin price is essentially for paper gold. I was going a bit conservative on that one. I wouldn’t be shocked to see it hit 2k
For inflation I was referring to the official CPIU, and yes, I know that indicator is screwed up, but they can’t just point the finger at the volatiles this year. While we increased our money supply by 24% in the month of November alone, the final official inflation number won’t reflect that quickly or directly. Now that they are on the new years books, the banks will start to use some of that cash they have been sitting on. You have to keep in mind the deflationary pressures and failures around the world will also have an effect, and the government will be trying very hard in a few months to put the brakes on as inflation flares. They will find out that the cat doesn’t go back in the bag as easily as it comes out.
My prediction on the rates is that they will remain low (or zero) long after the majority have started screaming that they need to go up.
Wow, you are either on the East coast and an early riser, or a worse night owl than I am. :)
Yeah, I meant the e-bay price. Too bad Orwell got to the word “inflation,” and it is now essentially a synonym for increasing prices rather than currency. This permits government to blame the effect rather than notice the cause. It is the year 1913 that I would like to put back in the bag. ◄Dave►