Iran

Iran is an odd case in international relations. We’ve all gotten used to the regular media firestorms surrounding the nation. They begin with the implication that Iran is moving forward in some way with plans to launch a nuclear attack against Israel. This is followed by a lot of fearmongering by the Jewish Lobby in the media, some aggressive talk by Iran, talks with Russia and China, and ends with the international community threatening Iran and finally giving them some small boon in exchange for promises of being nice.

What I find so odd about this ritual is that it benefits all sides to continue to do it as regularly as the public will support. The media gets ratings, the politicians woo supporters, Israel gets more pity money and free weapons from the U.S., Russia and China strengthen their trade agreements, and Iran gets some trade concessions. All parties increases the fanaticism of their followers.

I’m of the belief that Iran has nuclear weapons, got them from the Russians, and has had them for a long time. I think all of the major powers know it, but keep it quiet because they like the current system and know the revelation would lead to panic and war.

Juan Cole recently wrote an article entitled “Top Ten Things You Think You Know About Iran That Are Not True” A few choice excerpts:

Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its neighbors or the US

Reality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war in modern history (unlike the US or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of “no first strike.” This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guards commanders.

Belief: Iran is a militarized society bristling with dangerous weapons and a growing threat to world peace.

Reality: Iran’s military budget is a little over $6 billion annually. Sweden, Singapore and Greece all have larger military budgets. Moreover, Iran is a country of 70 million, so that its per capita spending on defense is tiny compared to these others, since they are much smaller countries with regard to population. Iran spends less per capita on its military than any other country in the Persian Gulf region with the exception of the United Arab Emirates.

Belief: Isn’t the Iranian regime irrational and crazed, so that a doctrine of mutally assured destruction just would not work with them?

Actuality: Iranian politicians are rational actors. If they were madmen, why haven’t they invaded any of their neighbors? Saddam Hussein of Iraq invaded both Iran and Kuwait. Israel invaded its neighbors more than once. In contrast, Iran has not started any wars. Demonizing people by calling them unbalanced is an old propaganda trick. The US elite was once unalterably opposed to China having nuclear science because they believed the Chinese are intrinsically irrational. This kind of talk is a form of racism.

I’m not a fan of Iran. I don’t like the part they play in this cycle any more than those of the rest of the contributors. My point in this is not to support Iran, but to end a cycle of fear and kickbacks, that while it may be beneficial in the short term to the top players, is bad for the future of the world at large.

Government Chia Eradication Efforts

I love a good conspiracy theory, and I have a few myself regarding red lights and government corruption. This guy, however, needs to check his tinfoil hat for lead content. I give him extra credit for delivery and follow through. His web design made me smile, and he even has T-Shirts!

Ron Paul Weighs in on Rush vs. Steele Controversy

We are witnessing a bipartisan media convergence. The recent phenomenon of prominent Republicans criticising Rush, only to issue a groveling apology the following day, finally reached its peak with Michael Steele, the supposed head of the Republican party. My favorite headline of the week came from Wonkette: Rush Limbaugh Has Balls Of Steele. Rush has a sizable set of followers in the Republican party, and is unlikely to try and squash the rumors that he is the real voice of the GOP. The left sees his high negatives and is ready to help the Republicans rally around a leader with a low ceiling. It is Hillary all over again. In the above video Ron Paul shows that you don’t have to be in the center to appeal to the center. You just have to have some real honest solutions. In order to do that these days, you can’t tow the party line, of any party.

Saturday Night Live has also weighed in on the issue, which means it has truly reached mainstream proportions. (via the Intellectual Redneck)

Grab Your Tinfoil Hats, Conspiracy Theory Coming Up!

What would you do if you had seen the future? If you knew, for a fact, who was going to win the next Superbowl? I think most people would start taking out loans. A lot of them.

The president of the United States is in an interesting position. To some extent they can see the future, not because they know what will happen, but because they hold the playbook and call the shots. Unlike the time travelling gambler, the president is both under a lot of scrutiny, and has a lot of responsibilities to the nation. To some extent their power transcends the petty desire for the big payout. Put yourself in their shoes. You see the economic failings. You see the coming crash and subsequent long path back to national solvency. What do you do?

You plan. With a team of economic advisers and more information at your request than any other individual in the world.

There is a science based religion out there that exists on the premise that we strive to create increasingly realistic computer simulations of the world around us, therefore, it stands to reason that the world we live in is likely such a simulation. I would propose a similar theory. Our leaders believe that by tampering with the free market, they can make it do their bidding, therefore it is quite possible that most of the economic drama that has unfolded in recent years was not by the natural course of economic chaos, but by design. The availability of credit, the housing bubble, the crash, and the bailout, all part of a bigger plan. Think back:

We had begun losing agriculture and manufacturing to countries who were able to work with lower standards and cheaper labor. This led to a trade imbalance as it became cheaper to buy foreign goods than domestic.

So the question arises, how do we devalue our currency enough to stem the bleeding of outsourcing?

The banks don’t want inflation, it devalues their holdings. If we try to create inflation, the banks will fail as inflation goes higher than their interest. Investors, manufacturers, and rich people in general will lose money and blame the government.

How do you create inflation while looking like the hero rather than the villain? Debt. Those in debt will welcome it.

Make them think they see the future, give them their credit, and when they are overstretched?

Cut off the credit. People will stop buying, sellers will drop prices in desperation. Now what?

Threats of deflation. When deflation and debt come together you have defaults.

Defaults crash the banking system. The government gets to arrive as the hero and print money to give to the banking industry and whoever else it wants, all in the name of saving us from deflation. Those who saw the future, made the future, profit.

As we snap out of the illusion of deflation into hyperinflation, the bailouts save the banks, our debts get relatively smaller, industry returns under a weaker dollar, and those who made the future profit again.

President Bush made it a priority to get people into homes. He lowered the interest rates and made sure everyone could get loans. His administration later cracked down on subprime lending. He printed the money and bailed out the banks, and then the Harvard MBA handed over the reins and sold his phony cowboy ranch in Texas. How much of the stupid was an act?